Congratulations to one of the Grand Old Men of Canoe Lake, Don Lloyd for being the first to pick the correct date. And kudos also to Gavin Bee, Sarah Matthews, Simon Nelson, Trevor Hammer, and Anthony Cher.

I'll have a little more detail and some photos to post later this weekend.

Not a record, but the latest date we've seen since 1997 when the ice hung on until May 8th.

"Roy and I were up over the Easter weekend and did see some progress of the ice getting more and more rotten. It didn't help to have below freezing temperatures each night though. Also there had been a big snowstorm with an accumulation of at least 6" of new snow on last Wednesday. Enough to insulate the ice.

At the north end of Canoe Lake the ice is out of Wigwam Bay and out from the Ahmek waterfront up to 30 yards. Ghostwalk Creek was not all out though.

In the south we were seeing the ice pull away from the shore up to about 20 feet in places. When we left yesterday the Portage Store bay was still mostly ice covered, although pulling away around the docks and beach.

Bonita was still ice covered yesterday but the river between it and Canoe was open to McMurchie's. All over the lake the ice was going quite grey.

With the heavy rain the next couple of days and warmer temperatures I think it will be out for the weekend. By then Huntsville would have been out for two weeks!"

Canoe Lake ice - Monday, April 25th, 2011.  Photo by Roy & Holly Stewart

David Statten and Wam getting around on Canoe Lake - Friday, April 8th, 2011.  Photo by Roy Stewart

Unlike some, I really don't think the ice will be going out in the next few days, but whether things will be open on the weekend (and the 1st of May on Sunday) is a tougher call. Personally, I think it's at least even odds that it will not.

We shall see.

Meanwhile, head on over to the Algonquin Outfitters blog for some excellent ice photos taken earlier today.

So, we go into the last weeks of winter in Algonquin with 157 votes - a record (by 2, over 2008). Almost 50% of people think the ice will go out during the week of April 19-25; and the most popular date, by far, is April 22nd.

I heard from some folk up on the river between Canoe and Tea lake that there is a lot of ice on the lakes - I think they said 20", but that seems hard to believe. On the other hand, it snowed briefly in Mississauga yesterday, and the last patch of winter snow left our front Garden in Toronto on Monday.

Wouldn't it be something if, after a record early ice out last year, we had a record late date this year? That would mean May 9th, or later.

We shall see :-)

Setting out across Smoke Lake - Sunday, March 27th, 2011.  Photo by Morag Paton

Given this forecast I'm not feeling very confident in my choice of April 21st--I think we could be looking at a May ice-out date for the first time in 14 years.

I have finally caught up and posted all the dates I have received so far (130 of them), as well as the usual graph showing the distribution. April 22nd is the overwhelming first choice, with almost 50% of people choosing a date in the week between April 19-25.

We shall see!

The Matthews Clan enjoying a cold March day on Canoe Lake - Sunday, March 6th, 2011.  Photo by one of the Matthews Clan

I have observed total (black plus white) ice thicknesses in the winter ranging from 8" - 24", usually about 16"-18", so this sounds about average. The temperatures have been a little low in March so far, and the layer of snow will keep the ice insulated. So I think we're looking at an average ice-out this year -- mid to late April.

I have received almost 100 ice out date predictions so far, but have been too busy to update the site. I will have time this weekend, so look for the big list to appear tomorrow or Sunday.

Well, it begins now!

After last year -- the winter that wasn't, and an ice-out date to shatter all records -- we seem to be back to normal. It feels like I've been shoveling and scraping every morning since well before Xmas, and we're a week into March without much relief. We were up on Canoe Lake two weeks ago, just after the big February Thaw that we seem to get every year, and although there wasn't as much snow as usual, the ice looked clear and solid.

As always you can follow the action with updates, photos, rules, weather forecasts and archives of past years right here at the official Canoe Lake Ice-out website.

So, get your date before someone else does! You can submit it by e-mail to: iceout@canoelake.ca, and if you haven't already, be sure to sign up for the mailing list so you will be notified of important ice-out events, like, well, when the ice goes out ;-)

But no!

Here's the most official ice out call we've ever had...

Hugh Statten, the Chief of Ice Out - Sunday, April 4th, 2010.  Photo by Charlie Plant

It looks like the ice went off Canoe Lake last night before midnight which makes it Saturday, April 3rd, 2010 and blows away the previous record of April 14th set in 1953.

Two of my official field correspondents, Hugh Statten and Charlie Plant, reported that it was "blowing like mad and raining" yesterday afternoon, and the ice was already off Smoke and Joe Lakes and was going out on Canoe Lake as they watched. It was pretty much all gone by 10:00 pm last night and I received confirmation from Charlie at 8:00 AM this morning:

"It is official. The ice is gone. In case there are any doubters I will get an official portrait done today of Hugh Statten, dressed in his chiefly robes and holding a copy of yesterday's Globe in front of the vast expanse of water that is now Canoe Lake."

I expect to be receiving more emails and photos from several people on Canoe Lake today and will post again tonight.

Another record was set this year in that no one chose April 3rd as the ice out date and so we have no winner. But I am happy to give credit for being closest to John and Sandy Churchill who picked today, April 4th, and also to Doug Yandala who said "Early this year...April 1st...no joke!" (I hadn't even had time to update system to include dates before April 6th -- so you don't see them on the predicitons!)

But it is certainly looking like we're headed for a record-breaking early April ice out at the moment.

Stay tuned!

If anyone has news (and photos!) from Algonquin, please shoot me an email so I can post it here.

I have posted all the date choices received over the past couple of weeks. There was a sudden surge of interest in April 10th for some reason, with 9 people choosing this date in the past 10 days!

The Matthews Clan enjoying a little spring hockey on Canoe Lake - Sunday, March 21st, 2010.  Photo by one of the Matthews Clan