But no! Here's the most official ice out call we've ever had...

Hugh Statten, the Chief of Ice Out - Sunday, April 4th, 2010.  Photo by Charlie Plant

It looks like the ice went off Canoe Lake last night before midnight which makes it Saturday, April 3rd, 2010 and blows away the previous record of April 14th set in 1953.

Two of my official field correspondents, Hugh Statten and Charlie Plant, reported that it was "blowing like mad and raining" yesterday afternoon, and the ice was already off Smoke and Joe Lakes and was going out on Canoe Lake as they watched. It was pretty much all gone by 10:00 pm last night and I received confirmation from Charlie at 8:00 AM this morning:

"It is official. The ice is gone. In case there are any doubters I will get an official portrait done today of Hugh Statten, dressed in his chiefly robes and holding a copy of yesterday's Globe in front of the vast expanse of water that is now Canoe Lake."

I expect to be receiving more emails and photos from several people on Canoe Lake today and will post again tonight.

Another record was set this year in that no one chose April 3rd as the ice out date and so we have no winner. But I am happy to give credit for being closest to John and Sandy Churchill who picked today, April 4th, and also to Doug Yandala who said "Early this year...April 1st...no joke!" (I hadn't even had time to update system to include dates before April 6th -- so you don't see them on the predicitons!)

But it is certainly looking like we're headed for a record-breaking early April ice out at the moment.

Stay tuned!

If anyone has news (and photos!) from Algonquin, please shoot me an email so I can post it here.

I have posted all the date choices received over the past couple of weeks. There was a sudden surge of interest in April 10th for some reason, with 9 people choosing this date in the past 10 days!

The Matthews Clan enjoying a little spring hockey on Canoe Lake - Sunday, March 21st, 2010.  Photo by one of the Matthews Clan

• There is a clear consensus that it will be an earlier-than-average
  ice out this year.
• The most popular single date is Monday, April 19th.
• 54% of people think the ice will go out in the 5 days between
  April 17 - April 21. (This a larger % than last year, and a week earlier.)
• 80% of people think the ice will be out by April 22nd.

Time for bed... I'll try to get another post up later this week.

We cut a hole in the ice (see below) and it looks to me like there is about 20" total. There is a 2" layer on top with about 1" of water underneath, and then about 17" of solid, clear ice. In my experience these are pretty much average conditions.

I have already received a pile of dates and should get around to posting them this week. In the mean time, here are some photos from our weekend...

Heading for the cottage under a big blue sky on Canoe Lake - March 6th, 2010.  Photo by Jefferson Ridpath

We ran into some other Canoe Lakers in the parking lot and headed out together - March 6th, 2010.  Photo by Jefferson Ridpath

The star of the show! - March 6th, 2010.  Photo by Jefferson Ridpath

Once again, it was John Manson who was the first to email me (on January 20th no less!) with a date for this year. The 2010 ice-out season began with these words: "Anyone can predict once spring starts, real men give it a try when the ice is still forming!"

I'll be up on Canoe Lake again soon and will bring back a full report and photos. When those are posted, and I've cleaned things up around here, I'll send out an email to the list officially announcing the 2010 ice-out pool.

Stay tuned...

Making tracks on Canoe Lake on February 12th, 2010.  Photo by Debbie Ridpath Ohi

Not an hour after we had arrived on the west shore, this year's ice-out winner, Russ Matthews, pulled up to our dock with his wife Jill, and daughter Sarah. I'm very pleased that Russ won this year, he is a life-long Canoe Laker and our neighbour -- and Friday was his birthday!

Congratulations to Russ, and the 11 (!) others who were savvy enough to pick Friday for ice-out this year: Randy Born, Karin McCaskill, Holly Stewart, Christopher White, Sue Kingsley, Mark Rubino, Brian MacTavish, J. Proppe, Steve Soloduka, Doug Pole, Andrew Hsueh

And many thanks to everyone who participated in this year's ice-out contest -- see you all next year!

This year's winner (and birthday boy) Russ Matthews with wife Jill, and daughter Sarah on ice-out day.

Watching the last of the ice melt away to the north.

Yours truly...

There is only one thing to do now -- get up there and see for myself! I'll be leaving shortly and will do my best to report in here late this afternoon or this evening. But in case I am not able to get a post up here, you can also check this Mobile Me gallery for photos posted directly from my iPhone.

It's a longish report, but the short version is that they estimate that "highway 60 Corridor lakes should be open by Saturday (April 25th) and all interior lakes by Monday (April 27th)."

It is clear in the photos that large chunks of Opeongo are already open, and Smoke -- although it has no large open areas yet -- looks like it's starting to get soft. With the very warm weather in the forecast for this weekend it seems certain now that the ice won't last very far into next week, if that!

Unfortunately, I don't think the ice will be out in time for those hoping to head out on a canoe trip or go fishing on Friday, or even Saturday. I could be wrong, but my feeling right now is that the ice will go out early next week. I think there will be a fair bit of open water along the shoreline by Saturday afternoon, but the main body of the lake is still pretty solid and it's going to take time (and some wind) to loosen it up.

I do think it is safe to assume that the ice will be out by next weekend (May 1st) -- or at least open enough to get around.

So, will it be a repeat of last year, and right on the median date -- Saturday, April 25th? Or will it be a few days later and go to one of my immediate family? (My father has Sunday, my wife has Monday, I have Tuesday, and our very good family friend and Canoe Laker Harry Binswanger has Wednesday.)

Stay tuned!

It's certainly a warm and sunny day in Toronto and up Algonquin today, but the forecast is still showing below zero temps at night next week, and not all that warm during the day.

Photos of Lake of Two Rivers and Smoke Lake posted today by Gordon Baker over at Algonquin Outfitters show tht things are softening up a little around the edges, but the main body of both lakes remains solid and white and I still think we're at least a week away from ice-out.

And in case some of you missed it, our little ice-out site was mentioned in the latest edition of Ontario Parks "Insider" newsletter, and as a result we've been getting about 150 extra visits to the site each day. In total, we've had 4,000 visits to the site this season, from 1,500 unique visitors -- not bad!

The P-Store Bay on April 13th, 2009.    [Photo by Greg Van Gastel]